Wimbledon Draw: Thoughts and Analysis

June 21, 2008 by Jeremy Howard

The Wimbledon Draws were released today, and I have a few thoughts I’d like to share heading into the grandest of the Grand Slams.

Marcos Bagdhatis was without a doubt the biggest beneficiary of Wimbledon using their own seedings (Wimbledon is the only Grand Slam that does not follow current rankings to seed the tournament). As a result of his previous Grass Court Results - quarter finalist and semi finalist in the last two years at Wimbledon, the 25th ranked player in the world has been moved all the way up to 10th seed. Of course, David Nalbandian is in his part of the draw, Djokovic is in his quarter, and Federer is in his half, so the chances of Bagdhatis reaching his second Grand Slam final are next to nothing.

Speaking of Federer, when it rains it pours. Coming off of a humiliating loss to Nadal in the finals of the French Open, he definitely got the short end of the stick with regards to his draw at Wimbledon. In addition to having to face two solid veterans (most likely) to start his tournament in Hrbaty and Soderling, here are some other names in his half of the draw - Hewitt (former champion), Mario Ancic (former Semi finalist), Marat Safin, the aforementioned Bagdhatis, big serving Ivo Karlovic, David Nalbandian (former nemesis), and Djokovic, the man to take out Federer in Australia this year. If Federer is going to win a 6th straight Wimbledon title, he is going to need to be playing at the top of his game throughout the fortnight.

While Nadal’s half isn’t quite as strong (drawing the 4th seeded Davydenko in his half, who is considered far weaker on grass than the top 3 seeds, was very lucky), there are still some serious threats in his path. In his second round he will have to face either John Isner, whose serve on grass gives him a chance against anyone, or Ernestis Gulbis, the young Latvian who made a quarterfinal run at the French Open. In his quarter final match, he will possibly have to face Richard Gasquet or Andy Murray. While both Gasquet and Murray have had less than stellar years, their talent has never been in question, and both have some momentum on their side - Gasquet made the semi’s last year, and Murray will have the English crowd behind him (even though most seem to detest him, they will still pull for a Brit).

The only other guy, in my humble opinion, in Nadal’s way, is American Andy Roddick. He doesn’t have the easiest draw, having to go through Tursonov and Blake will present challenges, but I do believe Roddick will make it through his quarter to most likely face Nadal in the Semis. I usually don’t like to make predictions about who will face who that late in the tournament, as so often early upsets really shake up the draw, but if these two do meet it could very well be the match of the tournament. Nadal beat Roddick at the Queens Club Tournament last week, but Roddick loves the Wimbledon grass, and everyone knows Roddick will give it his all to make it to the final Sunday.

With the Women’s Draw, the first thing that jumps out is the fact that the Williams sisters are on opposite halves of the draw. So, if they are able to rebound from tough French Open’s, they could potentially meet in the finals. Of course, Serena opens up against Estonian Kaia Kanepi, who just made it to the quarters of Roland Garros. Then she will also have to fight off the likes of Kuznetsova and Ivanovic to make it to the finals as well. Venus has to deal with Jankovic and Sharapova if she is to make it through to the final Saturday.

Look out for Elena Dementieva during this fortnight. Fresh off a semifinal appearance at the French Open, if Dementieva can avoid double faulting 28 times a match, her groundstrokes are so effective she could definitely make a run. Looming in the round of 32 is another potential surprise on the Women’s side. Lindsay Davenport, seeded 25th, is certainly not in her best shape, however her powerful ground game and serve have always led to great results on the Wimbledon grass.

Don’t forget about French Open finalist Dinara Safina either. She has never made it past the third round at Wimbledon, but her confidence coming off Roland Garros could really help her. One player I think you can forget about is last year’s finalist Marion Bartoli. She has really not done much since last July, and having lost in the first round of the first two Grand Slams this year, she has not given anyone much reason to hope for a repeat performance on the grass in 2008.

I’m not lucky enough to be traveling to London to watch the tennis live, but I’ll be following on TV as much as possible, so I will try to post as much as I can with thoughts and analysis on the matches.

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